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Reading the Behavior Signature: Predicting Leader Personality from Individual and Group Actions

April 8, 2010 @ 6:30 pm - 8:00 pm

Joint IIE / WINFORMS Evening Program

“Reading the Behavior Signature: Predicting Leader Personality from Individual and Group Actions” by Dr. Paul Sticha and Elise Weaver at the Booz Allen Hamilton McLean campus in Tysons Corner, Virginia Thursday, April 8 at 6:30 – 8:00 PM Networking 6:30 – 7:00 PM (light refreshments) Presentation 7:00 – 8:00 PM Free and open to the public


The personality of a leader can be used to predict that leader’s actions as well as those of the group that he or she leads. However, except for a small number of well-known leaders, the personality of leaders must be inferred from actions and other evidence. We have developed a Bayesian network to infer leader personality variables related to violence from evidence of leader and group actions and the situational demands and context in which the actions occur. The network was applied to a historical situation, and its ability to distinguish extreme personalities was established. We describe the process used to relate a leader’s behavior to his or her personality, based on the judgments of leadership researchers.

We illustrate how the relationships can be used to predict the likelihood of leader actions, given personality and situational variables. Finally, we show how the model can be used to infer a leader’s personality traits, given actions in context.

Presenters: Dr. Paul Sticha and Elise Weaver

Paul J. Sticha manages the Modeling and Simulation Program at HumRRO. He has conducted research that incorporates personality variables into Bayesian networks to use in models that predict leader behavior. Dr.

Sticha’s work includes the development and validation of mathematical models of human information processing, the application of probabilistic and decision-analytic methods to aid individual and group problem solving, the development of computer decision support systems for planning and design, and the application of advanced technology to aid training and training management. Principal areas of competence are decision and cost/benefit analysis, Bayesian networks, decision support systems, human performance modeling, mathematical modeling, military recruitment research, project management, simulation research, skill acquisition and retention.

He has a doctorate in Mathematical Psychology from The University of Michigan.

Elise Weaver is a Senior Scientist in HumRRO’s Modeling and Simulation Program. Working with researchers from Carnegie Mellon University’s CERT program, she participated in the development of the Management and Education of the Risk of Insider Threat (MERIT) model. Her areas of social science research expertise include social and cognitive psychology, especially judgment and decision making. Her areas of technical expertise include the development of models and simulations using system dynamics, Bayesian networks, and neural networks, the elicitation and analysis of expert judgments using judgment analysis, the design of experiments, and statistical analysis. She has a Ph.D. in Psychology from Duke University.

Location: Booz Allen Mclean Office:

8283 Greensboro Drive, McLean, VA 22102



Before 4:00 pm and after 6:30 pm, take I- 66 West to Exit 67 (Dulles Access/Toll Road). Follow the signs for ” All Local Exits (267 West)” to Exit 17 (Spring Hill Road). After the toll booth (50¢), turn left onto Spring Hill Road (which becomes International Drive). At the fourth light, turn right on Greensboro Drive. Take the second left onto Solutions Drive and another left into the “visitor” lot. The Building sits on the corner of Greensboro and Solutions drives. (8283 Greensboro Drive.)

Between 4:00 pm and 6:30 pm, ask for directions across one of several Potomac River Bridges to the George W Parkway going North. Exit at Route

123 South. Go about 4 1/2 miles on Route 123. Washington After passing under I-495, watch for International Drive, where you will turn right. At the first light, turn left onto Greensboro Drive. Take the second left onto Solutions Drive and another left into the “visitor” lot. The Building sits on the corner of Greensboro and Solutions Drive. (8283 Greensboro Drive.)

FROM OTHER LOCATIONS AND MORE DETAILED DIRECTIONS http://www.boozallen.com/media/file/directions_McLean_VA_052008.pdf

Once you have arrived, enter the building and at the visitor’s desk there will be escorts available to help you find room 2014 in the Hamilton building.  In the event that you have additional questions once you arrive, then call Nick Nahas at 978-337-6273.

RSVP by e-mail to Nick Nahas, nahas_nicholas@bah.com (even at the last minute), in order to have a rough count of attendees prior to the meeting.

Come anyway even if you do not RSVP.

For additional information, contact: Steven Wilcox, Ph.D., 703-939-6576 (office), 202-497-5774(cell), steven.wilcox@serco-na.com or Russell Wooten at russell.wooten@dhs.gov


April 8, 2010
6:30 pm - 8:00 pm


Booz Allen Hamilton McLean campus in Tysons Corner
8283 Greensboro Drive
McLean, VA 22102 United States